Italy grows less than expected. “Getting the accounts is more difficult” – Quotidiano.net

February 13, 2016 ALESSIA GOZZI

Rome, February 13, 2016 – ITALY emerge of the recession but still can not fly. On the day that the premier adds two important nodes in the network that is weaving anti austerity in Europe, the curse of the zero-point obscures the support received by the President of the EP Martin Schulz and the Austrian Chancellor Werner Faymann. The ISTAT data on the fourth quarter 2015 growth certify that gradually lost momentum to score one + 0.1% which brings the annual figure at a low 0.7%. But, if we consider the calendar effects (the three working days more than 2015), the data stops at +0.6%.

No worries, ensures Pier Carlo Padoan from Brussels, because, although he would like “to see one more decimal”, what matters for the Secretary of the Treasury is the direction of travel, “growth after three years of recession.” “We are far from that leap forward needed to turn the page – is the analysis of Nomisma – while it is granted that the final data on 2015 will be lower than the 0.8% expected.” A zero-lowest point of the government’s estimates (still officially 0.9% but Renzi had already lowered the bar to 0.8%), which in April will have to “reconsider the situation for public finances and macroeconomic environment.” But, at this point, it becomes extremely difficult to hit the growth target to 1.6% in 2016 (EU and IMF have lowered to 1.4% and 1.3%).

“SCENARIO has changed, the situation is more complicated,” admitted the Prime Minister. And his are square: “Are we not the problem, is the world slows down. Just look at the banks in America, France and Germany …. ‘ True, there are the geopolitical tensions, a slowdown in China and emerging markets, the turmoil in the markets with the banks all over the world in check, and the collapse of crude oil in the long run is proving to be a boomerang. But what disturbs the sleep is domestic demand, consumption and investment: in previous quarters had claimed the drop in exports in the fourth but declined. Despite the last months of full de-contribution for new employees and the bonus of 80 €. The change in GDP was affected by the industry downturn, but the Treasury trust in an upward revision in the March final figure: the electrical consumption increased, the revenue went well as well as tourism. It is certain that if the denominator (ie GDP) is growing less, ‘to make ends meet is complicated, “admitted the men of Renzi, who also invite you to look at the glass half full because” consumption are broken. ” The impact on the deficit will be inevitable. The acid test is projected on 2017, with 15 billion of safeguard clauses to defuse and 0.5% of the structural deficit to be reduced. Not counting the 3.3 billion flexibility to migrant-safety unlikely that Brussels will give us. The political battle will be no less decisive than economic. And the flexibility Renzi spoke yesterday with Schulz and Faymann: “Apply it is a sign of common sense – he said -, we must devote more to the serious issues of Europe and to fulfill its zero-point.” “Respect due” for the “courage” of Italy, ensures Schulz with a lot of assists, “it is a pillar of the EU, the country with the most stable government.” And the Austrian Chancellor makes bank: “We should not stop investing on growth and jobs.” Pats on the back. From here you get, as defined by Renzi, “a more social and less financial” she goes. The cloth to be woven is long.

ALESSIA GOZZI

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