First test for Italicum, the rebus numbers – ANSA.it

It will be the first Tuesday ‘testing ground’ for the majority that, in a few days, is called to bring the Italicum in the safe. In Parliament in the House will in fact staged the questions required – by secret ballot – by the opposition and which the government has chosen not to put confidence, ‘trusting’, so, its majority. For the yes, we need at least 316 votes . Renzi, on paper, has about 410 deputies and a margin that, almost certainly, will not evaporate: 90 votes or so .

For the boundaries drawn from group who sit in the Assembly are however accompanied a number of key factors: one for all, internal dissent in the Democratic Party. The minority Dem, on paper, is counting on a hundred parliamentarians, number roughly equivalent to that of the non-voters at the time of the deputies in the assembly of yes all’Italicum Pd. The number of those who, in the secret of the urn, will not vote the ruling should be, however, by far the lowest and if, abacus in hand, not to vote (always with a secret ballot) the final text will be a portion of the members of the minority ranging from 20 to 40 deputies, Tuesday dissent promises, in numbers, much less full-bodied.

The arc of the opposition, at least apparently, is, however united (but Antonio Matarrelli Sel pleaded pro-Italicum) to give battle to the electoral law. With a few exceptions that, in the secret of the urn, could emerge: beginning with FI, where the ranks of ‘verdiniani’ consists of a dozen deputies. Dem dissent, however, is expected to shrink if the government chooses to put the trust on the three items dell’Italicum.

Apart from the group of ‘hard-core’ – by D’Attorre to Fassina, from Bindi to Civati ​​- the minority is overwhelmingly oriented to a vote of confidence that could present some risk (but the margin remains of 90 deputies) just in case the opposition opt for the Aventine.

In fact, the House must be no more than half of the voters, and not surprisingly, the Democratic Party deputies came the sms alert to call everyone to be present already in the vote on the ruling. And if the secret ballot on the final text may submit up to 40 dissidents Pd (from sinistraDem to bersaniani), the risk ‘debacle’ would seem only hidden secret vote on a possible amendment to sull’apparentamento double shift, so that also attracts pieces of ‘minor allies’ Renzi, Ap to Sc. But it is a risk that, with confidence, would be pulverized.