the referendum that just ended was loaded with meanings and expectations that had little to do with the merits of consultation. On the one hand a political motivation: a strong value anti-government (more precisely antirenziana), a sort of dress rehearsal for the constitutional referendum. On the other side a boost, “regionalist”. The fact that to promote it were nine regions does indeed also think there is an issue of allocation of powers between the central and local levels. Another strong element in the center of the upcoming referendum. Finally, the conflict within the Democratic Party, of which the governor of Puglia and one of the most active promoters of the investment, Michele Emiliano, is a hero.
The 5 stars for head
it is therefore interesting to try to figure out who has participated in the vote, to check the impact of the campaign, which was also very subdued. So we worked on our previous polls the vote, a sample of about 9,000 interviews conducted fed between the end of March and the days preceding the vote. Were the most of the other pentastellati voters to participate in the vote. In this group of voters, just under half (47%) occurred at polling stations. It is reasonable to think that among these voters are summed two reasons: the political one (give a strong signal to Renzi) and the environmentalist. Among voters fact grillini environmental sensitivity is higher than average and not surprisingly was one of the initial bonding of the Movement.
Left and center-right
a distance come the leftists. In this case the participation, although significant, was lower than pentastellati: 36% occurred at polling stations. In leftists harbored substantially similar motivations to those of Grillo voters: the impatience with Renzi and environmental orientation. Follow the voters of the center-right Forza Italy and the League. The Berlusconi voters make record turnout close to the average, 30%. It is not unlawful to think that in this case the prevailing motivation was the desire to send a critical signal to the President of the Council. It is in fact an electoral segment where environmental sensitivity is less consistent than average. The same can be said for voters leaguers, including the participation amounted to 29%.
The government area
At the very last places others. The voters of the government area forces have massively joined the abstention line: only 23% of Democratic voters and the same percentage of voters popular area have decided to show up at the polls. undoubtedly affects the voters gave the Democratic Party: as this referendum was not only promoted but also explicitly supported by leading members of the minority and men of wide popular following as Michele Emiliano, the results were marginal. It therefore seems that the use of referendum to a “count” inside has no results.
Differences to the media
the reasons that we have identified appear to be rather cross. It is interesting to note that in fact the information tools have had a secondary effect on the guidelines for participation. The only appreciable difference emerges in fact, for the group of voters who use the Internet as the predominant instrument of information, where the participation rises to 34%. But it is also a given rather obvious. Among internettiani fact they tend to be better represented the electorate of the Movement 5 Stars, and to be more present (also for younger age) the sensitivity to the environment. At the other extreme we find the group of those who are informed only through television, where participation drops to the minimum: 28%. Here we find a higher age and an environmental sensitivity less marked. But in both cases it is not glaring differences.
Towards October
in short, given that this referendum was to be used for some to heat the engines in view of the consultation on constitutional reform, it is not a false start close enough. For fall must find reasons, compact and solid instruments.
* Director Ipsos policies Searches
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April 18, 2016 (modified April 19, 2016 | 10:38)
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