P oco less than a year ago, thousands of Greeks in Syntagma square sang and danced all night after the big “No” in the referendum on the European rescue. The morning after the government had called them to the polls surrendered to the Troika. Yesterday morning in Lombard Street in the heart of the ancient City of London, British subjects who had just chosen to divorce European Union did not pass even a flash of triumph in her eyes. Everyone waited to his routine as if nothing had happened the night before, but everyone knew that this is not Greece: in the UK when the people vote no one never on his will.
the road to the polls
In 2013 Cameron cashed the support of many of his own MPs for a second term in Downing Street, in exchange for a promise that then seemed to many a small thing: the last referendum. So the man who had transferred between the Tories and the style of Tony Blair’s oratory thought he had driven back even in the shadow of the ultra-nationalists of Ukip.
Just like Tsipras, Cameron has underestimated the gear implications that had triggered. Maybe it’s just the fault of the law of unintended consequences, capable of generating perverse effects million times bigger act to their origin. Maybe he is just another flutter of butterfly wings in the Amazon forest, from where the blast capable of becoming hurricane on China.
With the referendum last night the crosses on the boards of 638,000 persons or 0.008% of humanity – the decisive difference between Remain and Leave – has set in motion the movement of trillions of all financial markets on the planet and the resources of billions of people from hundreds of countries.
Where fell the Remain
Cameron would never have imagined in that maze was hunting. Maybe it was his patrician upbringing descendant of King William IV in ottundergli the sixth sense by which true leaders feel the mood of the country. After spending a decade to destroy, Prohibiting and despise everything he knew Europe (up to block the inclusion in 2011 of the “fiscal compact” in the European Treaties), Cameron suddenly had to change part in the referendum campaign. It’s never sounded credible. It has been reduced to “Project Fear”, trying to frighten his own voters with the economic consequences of European Secession, as he was unable to provide a positive explanation, plausible and even in the slightest sentimental about why the British also have a European destiny.
Neither he nor his were aware of a deeper resentment that was taking root in the United Provinces. Since 2004 the EU have fallen clauses limiting the freedom of movement of some of the newcomers in the club: Poles, Hungarians, Czechs, Slovaks. The study center Migration Watch in recent years has documented, belying the government’s commitments, immigration growth that is laying bare the inadequacy of a British welfare system battered by Cameron cuts and his Minister of Finance George Osborne.
at current rates in the country are entering 330,000 foreigners a year and at this rate in 2018 two-thirds of local authorities will have no shortage of places for children in primary schools. To make room for new immigrants is to build an apartment in the UK every four minutes (also the fault of policies that restrict supply in order to grow the value of existing houses).
So immigration has become a blunt weapon Face Leave. Voters thus, wanted above all to close the borders. Yet it happened something strange: they are deployed en masse with Brexit particular areas of the kingdom where the presence of foreigners is significantly below average: the Northumberland or Carlisle in northern England or Boston and South Holland in the East (according to the Migration Observatory of Oxford); on the contrary they are deployed much more for the stay in the EU the high density districts of immigrants, including the entire central region of London, Oxford and Cambridge. It’s a strange dissonance. It suggests that voting for Leave mainly contains a message of economic malaise and fear of those who feel left behind, isolated regions in an industrial time, while Britain open to Europe and to the world.
shadow carousel
Brexit, British newspapers on newsstands Friday
After the divorce
The paradox is that this vote It will end up impoverishing even more those who are already more vulnerable and likely to be a dramatic waste. Last year, for example, the UK is back to the record of 1.6 million cars produced, it reached ten years ago, but now the industry is likely to collapse. If London is out of the European internal market, its cars will have to pay a duty of 10% to enter and this will put them out of business. The Indian Tata has already made it clear that it will close the plant, BMW is likely to do the same with the factories of the Mini.
Besides the background it is fragile: the total debt of the state, non-financial corporations and households in Britain still exceeds 300% of GDP and not declining despite a recovery now in its seventh year. The country manages to maintain its standard of living only by borrowing from abroad sums of almost 5% of its national income, but with an already sterling in freefall Britain will always find creditors less willing to trust them again. For the weak classes, those who believed the promises Face Leave, promises an even harder phase. Exit the EU means to them to give up even the minimum social security requirements at work in Britain were not there before.
The relationship with Europe
It is on this background that the new government will have to mending relations with Europe, whatever it is. The government in Paris and even more than the Berlin Wall are not willing to make concessions. If you want to retain access to the single market by half a billion consumers, even from outside, London will have to accept the full menu: including the free movement of workers from other countries, just what the referendum rejected. Why Germany now offers the only “association agreement.” It means that Britain is likely to be cut off from its only real outlet market, with the banks of the City and the private investment funds of the “passport” to operate with the rest of Europe.
No one can cheer. This is another symptom of disintegration of the structure founded under the Treaty of Rome in 1957. It is primarily intended to create a precedent in the market waiting for the next secession of another country. Perhaps you could call a referendum to exit the Dutch populist leader Geert Wilders, perhaps you could do that Polish nationalist government. Certainly by this decline syndrome it affects primarily the most vulnerable countries like Italy, especially in the equity securities of the financial sector that the European Central Bank can not protect. It is no coincidence that in the corridors of Brussels and the markets has returned the hypothesis that Italy asks sooner or later a slight support from the European Stability Mechanism to anchor their own banks, but it is a scenario that no one in Rome split.
June 24, 2016 (edited June 24, 2016 | 23:44)
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