RECENT local elections have left their mark, even on the national political level. The recent survey by Demos for the Atlas of the Republic confirms Politico. According Italians (respondents) to the administrative of June there is only one winner. The M5S. The only party to have strengthened at the national level (I think about 80 per cent). While others are weakened. Most of all, the Democratic Party Renzi. Election estimates reflect these evaluations.
In the case of policies, in fact, Demos elections gives the M5S more than 32% of valid votes. About 5 more, compared to the previous survey, conducted in April. While the Democratic Party stood at just over 30%. Stable compared to previous months. Behind these two political forces it is nearly empty. League and Forza Italy does not reach 12%. Even if you coalizzassero, “forced” by dell’Italicum rules, with little chance (to be cautious) to get on the ballot. The other parties, all, coming barely 5%.
THE TABLES
On this basis, it would further strengthen the M5S, but most importantly, you rewrite any of the system reports power among political actors. The imperfect tripolarismo, emerged in the vote in local elections, at national level would be reduced to a two-party system. In fact, the Democratic Party Renzi and M5S together intercetterebbero almost two-thirds of the votes. While the remaining third of the electorate appears divided and fragmented. The M5S, however, in case of runoff largely win. As, indeed, was the case, the administrative, in the municipalities where the major M5S, managed to reach the second round, managing to establish itself virtually anywhere. In 19 major municipalities of 20. Among them, first of all, Rome and Turin. The M5S, in fact, now see the main channel to collect dissent against the “traditional” parties. But, above all, to intercept the vote “anti-renziano” from the entire political spectrum. Especially in the middle and on the right.
According to the survey, M5S, in case of ballot, would prevail by nearly 10 points on Pd (54.7 to 45.3). While in comparison with the force-leaguers there would be no story. Almost 20 points behind. They will also explain – especially – so the growing concern in the majority, to the Italicum, the electoral law passed by this government. That enters into force today. It reproduces, in many ways, the device adopted for the election of mayors. With effects definitely unpleasant and welcome to the PDR. And its leader.
Moreover, echoing the famous definition of Giorgio Galli, shows a two-party “less” imperfect some time ago. When the M5S is proposed as an opposition, but not as an alternative. Appeared, ie, a collector and a container of resentment. But without hope. No ability to govern. Why it was not voted for this reason. After the local elections in June, however, the views of the electorate, to the way, seem to change. Today, in fact, almost two out of three voters consider M5S able to govern the city where it was stated. While the majority not only retains a steering force at national level. However, the guidelines are changing, even in this respect. Given that more than 4 out of 10 voters think the M5S would be able to govern the country. Still a minority. But large. It grew by more than 10 points over the past months.
The political polarization that emerges in the electoral level, is also reflected on the level of “trust” staff. Beppe Grillo, in fact, reach – almost – Renzi. While Di Maio surpasses it. And De Magistris, re-elected mayor of Naples smoothly, joined him. A sign that even left there is an area of dissent against the prime minister. However, despite the disappointing results of the administrative, personal trust Renzi, in recent months, it remains stable. Around 40%. And the consensus against his government grows by a few points. Up to 42%, probably, for two reasons. The first, internal political in nature, reflects the bipolar tension, fueled by anti-political challenge of M5s. Polarizing the consensus and disagreements around the two protagonists: the M5s and Renzi. On the other hand, there are other factors that attract public opinion around the government. The predominantly external nature. The security question in the first place. Fueled by immigration, which continues to generate concern. Then, the European question, dramatized by Brexit.
Much of Italians feared the effects. And for that we are seeing a growing consensus towards the EU. And with an increase in support for the euro. It is the reflection of known trends. Among Italians, in fact, even in the past the fear of the possible effects of exit from the EU and the euro prevailed largely on dissatisfaction with regard to both institutions. Today this perspective is not so hypothetical and that the European construction creaks alarmingly, the euro-peista feeling is strengthened. By reaction. If it were also proposed in Italy a referendum Itæxit, the output of our country by the European Union, according to the survey by Demos, two thirds of Italian voters would vote against. That is, to stay in the EU. Only among voters of the League a majority would vote to leave. All others, including those of the M5S, would choose to remain “united.” As a precaution, because you never know …
The climate of international tension, the European instability, internal insecurity, therefore, seem to reinforce, to some extent, also the support to the national government. To guide him. Despite everything. Perhaps as a reaction to “threats” that come from outside. But also because, in front of the two-party calling the “policy” becomes stronger between politics and anti-politics, at this stage. More credible.
On the other hand, in times so uncertain, add more uncertainty reasons: raises further uncertainty.
And the lure of the “new at any cost”, at least when it is the national government, it becomes less attractive. The political market, many prefer, as a precaution, relying on the semi-new. At least for now. Tomorrow is another day. You’ll see.
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