It is said that in the days before the historic British referendum, Queen Elizabeth asked all the guests at Buckingham Palace: “Give me three reasons why Britain should stay in Europe.”
But in the urn secret reasons of the subjects of the queen does not have wanted to hear. They voted with the belly and not the head, shocking the world, upsetting the markets and revolutionizing the British political system.
“I can not believe they did. I can not believe they did it, “he kept repeating a banker friend at four-thirty in the morning yesterday, when it became clear that the Brexit had won not only on those who wanted to stay in Europe, but also on the polls, punters and the overpaid the City trader.
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” All change, “as it says on the English train arrived at the terminus. Get off all, here you change. The world will never be the same. This was said Angela Merkel with typical candor: “We’re not telling stories: the British vote is a watershed for Europe.” And not just for Europe. The aftershocks of the earthquake triggered the stampede of millions of Britons are affected by the European Union in Washington and New York to Beijing and Australia.
But let’s start from Brussels and major European capitals, in the coming hours will have to decide how to react to this heavy slap on the part of Great Britain.
Turning the other cheek, in this case, it does not seem an option. In the corridors of European power the biggest concern right now is to avoid the contagion of Brexit. And the best way to do this is to show that those who leave the EU suffers. That Britain does not deserve any special concession.
Already Marine Le Pen has called for a referendum on “Frexit”. In countries like Italy, Spain goes to the polls Sunday, and even Germany, can breathe a toxic mix of anger of the middle classes who feel “robbed” by the economic crisis, fear of immigration, and profound dissatisfaction of a political elite considered incompetent, unresponsive or corrupt (or all three).
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The problem for Brussels and Merkel, for Renzi and Rajoy is that European institutional structures are so distant from the citizens who will be very difficult to change people’s opinions. When the references to democracy and the “dream” of a European federation are the palaces of the European district of Brussels, from the ministries of Rome or the German Federal chancelleries, it is not surprising that people look elsewhere.
“The bureaucrats and political leaders know what they have to do but fail to do so. They are not in contact with the population, “said a British diplomat yesterday.
At least now i know by now the end of European politicians who will do if they continue to ignore the protests coming from the streets of the poorest cities, from the suburbs of the big cities and factories in crisis.
They will make the end of David Cameron, the British Prime Minister, in fact, former British Prime Minister, whose mandate ended in front of Number 10 Downing Street in a bath of ignominy. In the end the fault is his, for betting on the referendum and lost. For not understanding which way the political wind was pulling his country.
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A COUNTRY TO DRIFT
Cameron is gone without leaving the galleon British helmsman. For the next three months, we will see a fierce confrontation between various factions of the Conservative Party to take control of the party and the country.
And while the “big beasts” of the Conservative Party, as various Boris Johnson, Theresa May and Michael Gove like to call themselves, they kill, the country will drift. “The most disastrous event in the history of Britain since the end of World War II,” she called my old colleague Martin Wolf, usually a soft-spoken economics commentator for the Financial Times.
A NEW ROLE
Britain’s position in the world will change. For centuries, the country was pegged at something very concrete: Before the Empire, then the Commonwealth of colonies and, more recently, the EU. It is now at the mercy of himself. Ammiccherà to the United States but Obama he has already said that the famous “special report” does not extend to tariff preferences or trade. And I do not think that a President Clinton, and even a President Trump, can change your mind, especially if the Europeans put pressure.
In order not to slip into a vicious circle of protectionism Britain could lean on the old colonies of the Commonwealth but India, Australia and the company wants to export products and people in the UK, not to replace the market single European Act, the sea of 500 million people and a GDP of 19 trillion dollars ready to buy goods and, above all, by the British services.
Yes, the great British economy based on services, an epitome of modern capitalism, digital and not “burdened” by old-mold industries. What will happen to these vendors once services that Europe erects economic and tariff barriers? It was enough to take a ride in the City, the leading provider of services made in Britain, yesterday to see first hand the fear.
The high officials of the banks already whisper that will move thousands of jobs from London to Dublin, Frankfurt or Paris because the EU will allow him to operate in Europe if they are not in the EU. The reasoning is flawless but will do very badly in English economy that derives nearly 10% of GDP by the lords and ladies of the money. A banker friend in New York already predicted yesterday, less than 12 hours from the results of the vote, the Big Apple would have cheated in London, “the finance capital of the world crown.”
Speaking of apples, though, be careful because America is not without sin. Obama’s successor will have to make a decision that no American president has had to take in the modern era: to choose between Europe and Britain as “favored ally.” On one side there is the military relationship with one of the few countries that has a strong army and the will to use it. Who it was with the American side in all wars and foreign interventions of the recent past, even when it has paid a lot in terms of human lives and political careers (just ask Tony Blair on Iraq).
In the other corner, there is the most important trade partner for the US, a European Union that has the economic power to pull the global economy and a market to absorb products and services made in the United States: the Google technology to nuclear turbines of General Electric.
In the end, and there you will play the game: the relationship of love and hate between the EU that has been snubbed and the “new” Britain in search of identity and friends around the world. The Azzeccagarbugli of the Brussels bureaucracy say it will take at least two years to negotiate the details of Brexit. To write from scratch a new economic history, geopolitics and social among 27 countries that will try to get together and an island that has decided to leave on his own without thinking much about the consequences.
IN SEARCH OF HAPPY ENDING
it will be months and years of passion. The story could have a happy ending: a world “multipolar” where the ” Anglosphere ‘UK-US co-exists profitably with a reinvigorated EU and the emerging forces of the East and the South.
But it could also end badly. “You and I shall see the war in our lifetime,” he said my friend banker yesterday morning after landing at the end of a long flight. At the time, I attributed the comment to the time zone, to the confusion of the post-vote, in the excitement of a night referendum incredible. But after Brexit, the world hangs in the balance.
The map of the Telegraph showing the split vote: in blue zones won the “remain” in the red ones on “leave”
ANALYSIS – So the “leave” also beat the surveys (Simoni)
COMMENT MOLINARI – In one day has changed the world
Francesco Guerrera is the co-editor and finance editor of Political Europe
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