Matteo Renzi like game shows, as a boy he enjoyed imitating Mike Bongiorno and the king of commercial TV, Silvio Berlusconi. So he knows, the prime minister, who until the conclusion of the examination on his desk three envelopes will remain fully closed and sealed: number one, number two and number three. Three outcomes, three scenarios. With only two certainties: the evaluations on the advance of the vote to 2017 it will be made only after the October referendum; after these administrative secretary of the dem put upside the national and territorial organization of the party.
ENVELOPE NUMBER ONE: DEFEAT
Renzi loses Rome and Milan, before the center administered. Or Rome, Milan and Turin (is the cataloged cases as “tragedy” at Palazzo Chigi). Or, soft version, leaving the field Rome and Turin. From any angle it would take, it would speak without any doubt the defeat of the Democratic Party and Prime Minister. The plot on Monday is already written. The minority attack to change the Italicum, have suffered the electoral law of the senators and revive the Olive Tree. M5S center and more convinced that combining efforts at constitutional referendum could give the final shove to the government. The centrists, who have called organic alliance with the Democratic Party in the Parliament should be in crisis. The path you would Renzi complicated, the direction dem of 27 June would become a bedlam. The prime minister’s got a plan, and that is to download all the attention on the party: a new machine, perhaps a single model Deputy Secretary “iron sergeant”, the commissioner of Naples and other provinces in crisis. “In the party need one at Bonaccini,” he admitted several times Renzi recalling with nostalgia the role that the current governor of Emilia Romagna in the first place machine, the one that built the triumph with European. The most drastic assumptions (and painful, given its essential role in Palazzo Chigi) is moving to the Nazarene Luca Lotti. But the strategy to deal with the defeat also provides reasoning broader: the debacle in the city would be the proof that Renzi is not unbeatable, that the country is also contestable from the center and M5S. In short, the bitter result of administrative help the prime minister to prove that they are not in sight authoritarian tendencies, and that the constitutional referendum must be addressed on its merits.
ENVELOPE NUMBER TWO: DRAW
If the prime minister-secretary wins with room in Milan (and Fassino in Turin), pull – and not hide – a mighty sigh of relief. Milan is practically everything for the Democratic Party, this turn. And sfangarla would mean leaving things intact. The minority would have no more than how many cartridges he’s had so far. The internal discussion would drag wearily, but no major practical implications. The prime minister could continue its navigation with a relative serenity, storing Naples and Rome (where a Giachetti enough even the honors of war) as isolated facts and premises. The intervention on the secretariat of the party, there would be the same, but without much media hype. The referendum campaign would resume a regular course, purged of some verbal excesses. It being understood that there is a draw and draw. It seems obvious that room and Parisi if the play point to point. The Democratic Party, however, could not be satisfied if Fassino win by a neck and Giachetti took un’imbarcata. “The real strength of M5S – think in those days Renzi – is measured in Turin, not in Rome.”
ENVELOPE NUMBER THREE: MIRACLE
miracle, in the vocabulary of Renzi, these days translates to Roberto Giachetti. They believe in a few, actually. And especially for duty. However, if you happen to Renzi it would be a phenomenal hit, even able to sterilize disappointing results elsewhere. Especially useful would return to the premier the negative repercussions in M5S. The road to the constitutional referendum would be less troubled than feared.
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