The manoeuvre of correction of the public accounts in 2017 requested by Brussels, no matter how small, to 3.4 billion euros, has opened a large issue within the government and the majority. The minister of Economy, Pier Carlo Padoan, do not want to jeopardise “the reputation” painstakingly earned by the Country, which is unavoidable if scattasse the infringement procedure from the Eu Commission. The chairman of the Board, Paolo Gentiloni, is ready to “respect the european rules”, but does not want the maneuver “can induce, in any way, depressive effects on the economy. Needs that seem difficult to reconcile, but in appearance. Between Padoan and Gentiloni there is agreement, say their staff. The trouble is that it is extremely difficult to find the quadrature of the circle in the middle of a season of the election. With the weak economy, scarce resources, the downgrading of the rating, the inevitable next hardening of the mon etary policy, so far very accommodating. And new expenses to deal with, beginning with those for the earthquake.
Issue political
The real problem is political. “No we are going to vote never corrective action. No to new taxes and spending cuts, the priority is growth,” he cut short Maurizio Lupi, the president of the deputies of the Alliance of the people. In the Democratic Party, more of a caress, the idea of taking those blessed escape clauses, which, for years, freeze, increases in Vat. Only one point more than the tax would bring in four billion, would not have effects too depressive, and, indeed, perhaps would help a little inflation, facilitating the reduction of the debt. But you have to reckon with the secretary of the party, Matteo Renzi, and anything else that is willing to support a tax increase on the eve of the election.
on Tuesday, the response to the Eu
By Tuesday, in any case, you will need to say something to the European Union, is not satisfied with a simple political commitment, but she wants a detailed list of measures to be launched. The ministry of the Economy, we are working on for days, and Padoan will present Customers with a range of possible solutions. Including the advance of the new round of spending review scheduled for 2018, and a first overhead kick to the deductions and tax breaks. All you will evaluate the pros and cons on the political and on the economic front. Even Padoan wants to affect the resumption of growth. And even Customers want to put at risk the credibility of the Italian on the international markets, knowing full well that it is not a matter of pride, but of cash. Billion of interest more to pay on the public debt, if the markets are dismissing it you know, and the differential with German bonds, already on the rise these days, you impennasse again.
difficult Scenario
The 2011 does not appear a scenario too far from the current one. The public debt, on which you have returned to pay high interest rates, the highest since July 2015, is worrying. To reduce it, the government is back at work on the privatisation, and the Treasury aims to place on the market, the remaining 30% of the share capital of the post by June. But there are also new expenses to deal with the earthquake. Even if Brussels has asked Gentiloni to the president of the Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, not considered in the calculation of the yearly deficit, this would, however, weigh on the debt. And are significant expenses, which are necessary only to deal with the emergency.
another billion for the earthquake
Already, the next week should the government with a decree of law put on the pot another billion euro. Need more staff for the verification of occupancy on the property, which are still very backward. They have already been done a hundred thousand, but according to the office of the Commissioner there must be other 150 thousand visits, and whenever there is a shock strong, like those of January 18, in the affected areas, you have to start again. Need money for the maintenance of roads and railway lines affected by the earthquake and by the bad weather. And we need to support businesses that have remained on the territory, the breeders, to pay the hosts that are hosting the displaced persons in the hotel, the contribution of the autonomous arrangement for those who found accommodation on their own. Then there is the intention to extend for a part of the 2017, maybe doing a little bit of a selection and the support of the income of employees and self-employ ed who have had to suspend the activities, granted for the last few months of last year (and not yet paid). The first 600 million provided for by the law of last year on the earthquake are already flown away. Abruzzo, lazio, umbria and marche have got to complain about, and begin to arrive in Rome to protest. In the next few days are announced at other events. For a government and a majority from here in a few months will have to face new political elections is certainly not a favorable scenario. That were not enough to maneuver the additional requested by the Eu.
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January 27, 2017 (the edit on the 27 January 2017 | 23:39)
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